Mehmet Akif Ağlar

I am an applied microeconomist with research interests in energy and environmental economics. My current work focuses on how energy prices, policy, and market structure shape household behavior and economic inequality during the clean energy transition. Using high-frequency data and quasi-experimental designs, I generate evidence to inform regulators and industry.

In my job market paper, I study the effect of gasoline price shocks on consumer spending using household–week level panel data. Specifically, I study California’s Fall 2022 and Fall 2023 gasoline price shocks using high-frequency transaction data to compare household retail spending patterns in California versus other states. Leveraging a weekly event study and an event-window difference-in-differences approach, I find that during the event periods, California households cut retail spending by about 8 percent relative to the comparison states, with similarly sized declines in food and smaller, noisier responses in non-food. These spending reductions are concentrated among lower income households, who display larger declines in retail spending than higher income households. The spending path tracks the price path—falling within weeks of the price shock and reverting slowly as prices ease. The results show that short-lived, highly visible fuel price shocks can generate sizable contractions in household spending, mostly driven by reductions in food categories such as generic grocery, meat, frozen food, and bakery, with smaller and less significant effects on produce and dairy.

I am on the 2025-2026 job market.